| 新疆公路运输量发展预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱兴琳.新疆公路运输量发展预测[J].交通科技与经济,2008,10(3):100-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱兴琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆农业大学机械交通学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830052;上海同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海,200092 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析新疆经济、交通运输发展的基础上，采用回归分析法、三次指数平滑法、灰色预测方法和弹性系数法等多种方法预测新疆2010年、2015年、2020年的公路运输需求，并结合这些方法，采用了基于误差权重因子的多种方法组合预测的新方法，对新疆公路运输需求量进行了优化组合预测。对新疆未来3个特征年预测结果的分析表明，该预测方法是合理而有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 公路运输量 回归方法 灰色预测 组合预测法 新疆 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-5696(2008)03-0100-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月26 |
Prediction of Highway Transportation Volume Development in Xinjiang |
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| ZHU Xing-lin.Prediction of Highway Transportation Volume Development in Xinjiang[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2008,10(3):100-103. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Xing-lin |
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| Institution: | ZHU Xing-lin (1. School of Machinery and Traffic in Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China;2. School of Transportation Engineering in Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on economic and transportation development analysis of Xinjiang,many methods and models were adopted to predict the passengers and freights volume from 2010 to 2020 respectively.These methods include regression analysis model,cubic exponential smoothing model,gray model and elasticity factor method.According to these methods,a new combined method based on error-weight factor is used to optimally forecast transportation demand of Xinjiang highway.The forecasting results are presented and analyzed.The analysis shows that this method is promising and the results are reasonable. |
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| Keywords: | highway transportation volume regression analysis method grey model combined method Xinjiang |
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