| 大城市合理客运交通出行结构研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何婷,陈茜,张毅彬.大城市合理客运交通出行结构研究[J].交通与运输,2009(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 何婷 陈茜 张毅彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 柯林布坎南工程技术咨询有限公司;杭州市综合交通研究中心; |
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| 摘 要： | 通过考察国际大都市公共交通结构的主要特征,总结出大城市合理客运交通结构的发展趋势。基于对10个国际大城市的相关指标回归分析,探讨了大城市合理公交出行结构预测模型;最后,以杭州为例,应用预测模型,在分析杭州客运交通结构与国际知名大都市客运交通结构的差异以及产生差距原因的基础上,确定了杭州市在地铁建成后的合理客运交通结构。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通结构 公共交通 回归模型 |
A Study of Forecasting Appropriate Public Transport Mode Share in Big Cities |
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| HE Ting,CHEN Qian,ZHANG Yi-bin.A Study of Forecasting Appropriate Public Transport Mode Share in Big Cities[J].Traffic and Transportation,2009(1). |
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| Authors: | HE Ting CHEN Qian ZHANG Yi-bin |
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| Institution: | HE Ting1,CHEN Qian2,ZHANG Yi-bin1 (1.Colin Buchanan and Partners Shanghai Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 200051,China,2.Hangzhou Transport Research Centre,Hangzhou 310006,China) |
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| Abstract: | Discover the trends of public transport mode share in the development histories of international big cities.Establish a new regression model of forecasting public transport mode share by using 50 indicators of 10 international cities.Apply the model to Hangzhou as a case study to forecast the appropriate public transport mode share of the city in the future with metro in operation,and compare the current Hangzhou public transport service level with that of the international cities. |
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| Keywords: | Mode share Public transport Regression model |
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