城市私人小汽车保有量预测

城市私人小汽车保有量的迅速增长,在带动城市经济发展的同时也带来了非常严重的交通问题,为了缓解小汽车的交通压力,必须合理规划私人小汽车保有量.本文首先对现有私人小汽车保有量预测模型进行比较分析,然后结合我国小汽车的发展阶段,考虑交通供求关系及其表现形式,基于用户效用最优、随机均衡原理开发了一个双层规划预测模型,最后将其应用于一简单网络,说明此模型的可行性.

Prediction on the private car quantity in the city

The rapid increasing of the private car not only impulses the development of the city economy, but also brings very serious transportation problem. To mitigate the pressure of car transportation, the private car quantity must is reasonably programmed. First, the paper analyzes and compares the current prediction model on the private car quantity. Then joining together our country car stage and considering the transportation's supply and demand relation and its manifestation, the bilevel programming predicting model is developed based on the user utility optimization and the stochastic equilibrium. Finally this bilevel programming is used to the simple network to explain its feasibility.