小汽车出行群体向公交出行转移的可行性研究

近几年一些大中型城市机动车保有量迅速增加，城市交通拥堵问题越来越严重，小汽车出行过多地占用了城市道路资源，促使部分小汽车出行者转向公交出行，能够提高道路资源利用率，缓解城市交通拥堵问题。选取小汽车出行群体为研究对象，经过预调查得出了影响小汽车出行和公交出行的不同因素，利用正交设计方法，设计了调查场景并进行了SP／RP调查。根据调查数据建立了MNL模型及修正SP＆RP模型，通过对模型的敏感性分析得出，在一定范围内降低公交票价和缩短公交出行时间能够提高公交吸引力，吸引部分小汽车出行者转向公交出行。

Feasibility Study of Car Owner Transferring to Bus Use

In recent years, the quantity of vehicle ownership is rapidly increasing in some big and middle cities. The urban congestion problems have become more and more serious and the car use occupies a lot of road resources. Making some car owners transferring to bus use is an effective way to enhance the road utilization rate and solve congestion problems in city. The article takes the car owners as the study object. Several factors which affect the car travel and bus travel are obtained by pre-survey. Then scenes are de- signed using Orthogonal design method and it makes the SP/RP survey. Next the article establishes MNL model and SP＆RP model using survey data. According to the model sensibility analysis, it comes to a con- clusion that it can attract some car owners transferring to bus travel when the bus ticket price is reduced and bus travel time is shorten within a reasonable level.