基于模糊数学的公路交通量预测方法

在交通量资料少且规律性不强的情况下,设计年限内平均日交通量和交通量年平均增长率两项参数不易直接确定,而与之相关的参数如人口、经济、汽车保有量等有着不同的权重。鉴于此,利用模糊数学和线性规划的有关理论,通过模糊预测模型对某地区的交通量进行预测,并根据不同的影响因素,采用不同的权重对其进行交通量分配。实例分析表明,该方法更加客观、合理,具有一定的应用价值。

Highway Traffic Forecast Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

With little data about traffic which lacks of regularity,the average daily traffic in design period and growth rate per annum of traffic are difficult to confirm directly.Some correlative parameters such as population,economy and possessing capacity of cars have different weight.Given this,based on the theories of fuzzy mathematics and linear program,the traffic of a area is forecasted by fuzzy forecasting model and allocated according to different weight.The analysis on instance indicates that the method is objective and rational which has a certain application value.