基于水均衡方法的隧道涌水量概率预测

准确预测隧道的涌水量对保证隧道施工安全、降低隧道工程风险及防排水设计具有重要意义。采用降水入渗法，结合蒙特卡洛随机模拟技术，对河北省水峪隧道的涌水量进行概率研究。首先，确定了涌水量计算公式中三个随机变量的分布类型及数字特征；对各参数进行了1000次随机实现，获得了涌水量的分布直方图，取其置信概率为5%对应的值作为预测结果。研究结果表明，隧道涌水量服从正态分布，均值、预测值分布为56.215m^3/d和89.340m^3/d。该研究为隧道涌水量预测提供了一种概率分析方法，具有一定的参考价值。

Probabilistic Prediction of Water Inflow into a Tunnel Using Water Balance Method

Accurate evaluation of water inflow into a tunnel is of significance for the tunnel construction, reducing the risk, design of waterproofing and drainage. In the paper, a probabilistic analysis of water inflow into Shuiyu Tunnul in Hebei Province is carried out using precipitation method and Monte Carlo technique. First, the distribution type and characteristic values of three random variables are determined. A thousand simulations are performed to obtain the histogram of the predicted water inflow and the value of a 5%confidence probability is selected as the predictive value. The findings show that the water inflow almost obeys normal distribution, the mean value is 56.215m^3/d and the predictive values is 89.340m^3/d. The paper proposes a probabilistic method for prediction of water inflow into a tunnel, which can serve as reference.