港口装卸作业系统战时武器毁伤条件概率评估方法研究

由于战场情况的复杂,毁伤形式的多样,直接评定港口装卸作业系统的毁伤概率有很大困难。分析了装卸作业系统毁伤程度划分的影响因素,提出了基于抢修时间和贝叶斯网络法的武器毁伤的条件概率评估方法,解决了影响因素的选取和量化问题,有一定的实际应用价值;最后结合典型的装卸作业系统进行了毁伤条件概率的分析与计算。随着未来战争中要解决问题的大型化和复杂化,如何建立适用性更强、求解效率更高的装卸作业系统毁伤概率评价模型有待于进一步研究。

Research into the Evaluation Methods for the Conditional Probability of Weapon Damage to Ports' Loading-and-unloading Systems in Wartime

Due to the complexity of war situations and the multiplicity of damage forms,it＇s very difficult to evaluate the damage probability of ports＇loading-and-unloading system.Upon the basis of analyzing the infuential factors on how to divide the damage degrees of the loading-and-unloading system,which helps solve the problems of selecting and quantifying the influential factors,put forward in the paper is an evaluation method for the conditional probability of weapon damage based upon rush-repair time and the Bayesian network,which is of certain value in its practical application.Then,the conditional probabilities of weapon damage to some practical ports＇loading-and-unloading systems are analyzed and calculated.With the problems to be solved in future wars being bigger and more complex,greater efforts have to be made to study how to establish more evaluation models for the conditional probability of weapon damage,whose applicability and solving efficiency will be better.