事故分类的军队油料运输风险分析

军队油料运输面临风险多样,安全形势复杂,可分为交通中断和损失事故两种安全失效模式,主要包括财产损失风险和人员伤亡风险。结合相关文献提出各种风险度量模型,对军队油料运输面临的不同风险选择合适的度量模型,给出事故分类条件下各类型风险的分析计算公式,并根据运输实际环境和军事需要确定各类风险的权重,从而确定运输径路的总风险值。最后运用运输风险方法对具体案例进行了军队油料运输径路的选择。

Accidental Classification-Based Risk Analysis of the Transportation of Military Oil and Fuels

The transportation of oil and fuels by the army faces various risks, with the safety situation becoming more and more complex. The failure in the transportation may be divided into two failure modes： the interruption of traffic and the accident of loss, including the risks of the loss of property and personnel. With many risk models carried in different literature taken into account, the right risk-measuring model is chosen for specific risks,with different analytic and calculating formulae for different types of risks presented in the paper, upon the basis of which the weights of different risks are determined according to the actu- al situation of transportation and the specific military needs,and thus the general risk value of the transportation route is deter- mined. Finally,some of the real cases of military transportation are analyzed in the light of the transportation risk-evaluating method to help the right choice of the route for the military transportation of oil and fuels.