隧道岩溶突水危险性模糊多模型组合评价研究

评价隧道突水危险性对于保障岩溶地区铁路工程施工、运营安全具有重要的现实意义。针对评价过程中主控因素的多源性以及不确定模糊性，将模糊可变评价模型应用于岩溶地区隧道突水危险性评价中。首先，通过收集大量隧道突水灾害资料，提取突水主控因素并建立指标体系，该指标体系包括可溶岩成分、岩石结构、岩性特征、断层性质、断层宽度、褶皱构造...

Study of the Application of the Multi-Model Fuzzy Evaluation Method to the Risks of Water-Bursting in Tunnels in Karst Regions

The evaluation of the risks of water-bursting in tunnels is of much practical important significance for ensuring the safety of railway construction and operation in karst regions. In view of the multi-sources and the uncertain fuzziness of the con- trolling factors in the evaluation process, a fuzzy variable evaluation model is applied to the evaluation of the risks of water bursting in tunnels in karst regions the paper. Firstly, the data of lots of tunnel water-bursting disasters are gathered,water- bursting-dominating factors are figured out and an index system is set up,which includes the lavas composition, rock structure, lithological features,fault property, fault width,structural formation of＇the fold, the property of rich underground water, con- fined water pressure conditions, aquifer permeability, landform features, and the buried depth and the length of the tunnel, alto- gether 12 indicators. Then, a quantitative processing is made of the qualitative indexes, with the product scale method applied to the calculation of the index weight. Finally,by changing the parameters of the fuzzy variable evaluation model, a linear-and-non-linear-combined evaluation is made of the risks of water-bursting in the tunnel, with the mean result as the final result of the evaluation. The method having been applied to the evaluation of the Yuanliangshan Tunnel, the results prove the evaluation results of the fuzzy variable evaluation model to be reasonable,objective,and of better reliability and stability. It provides a new research and thinking way for the evaluation of the risk of water-bursting in tunnels in karst regions.