| 综合货运网络规模及货物周转量算法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李之红,袁振洲,许旺土.综合货运网络规模及货物周转量算法研究[J].北方交通大学学报,2014(3):32-37,43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李之红 袁振洲 许旺土 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京建筑大学北京市城市交通基础设施建设工程技术研究中心,北京100044 [3]厦门大学城市规划学院,厦门361005 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“973”计划项目资助（2012CB725403） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过30年来全国范围综合货运网络基础数据的分析,采用数理统计的方法,得出了三大产业生产总值和5种运输方式所承担货物周转量的相关关系函数,并以此确定了综合货运网络各种运输方式的里程规模.结合当前常规数据结构,建立不同运输方式所承担货物周转量合理比例的多目标货物周转量比例计算模型（CCTV Model）,并基于运输效率、运输效益、对经济增长的贡献分别确定了合理货物周转量构成比例.结果表明,模型利用国内的常规数据结构能够较好的预测综合货运周转量比例,并应用于未来综合货运结构的预测和分析,不同目标值决定了不同的运输方式货物周转量构成比例.
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| 关 键 词： | 综合货运网络规模 货物周转量 运输比例分担 货物周转量计算模型 综合运输 |
Research on algorithm of determining scale of intermodal freight network and cargo turnover volume proportions |
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| LI Zhihong,YUAN Zhenzhou,XU Wangtu.Research on algorithm of determining scale of intermodal freight network and cargo turnover volume proportions[J].Journal of Northern Jiaotong University,2014(3):32-37,43. |
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| Authors: | LI Zhihong YUAN Zhenzhou XU Wangtu |
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| Institution: | 1.MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Engineering Research Center of Urban Transport Infrastructure Construction,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 2.School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005,China) |
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| Abstract: | The basic data of national intermodal freight network in recent thirty years are analyzed,and mathematical statistics is applied to these data.The functions of correlativity among gross products of the three industries and turnover volume of cargo transported by five transportation modes respectively are plotted.These correlativity functions are used to determine the mileage scale of intermodal freight network.The mathematical model for the reasonable turnover volume proportion of cargo transported by various modes （CCTV Model） is formulated,which is based on three levels of objectives,the transportation efficiency,the transportation profit and the degree of contributions to economic growth.The results show that the model by using the conventional data of domestic structure can better predict comprehensive freight turnover ratio,and apply to the future comprehensive freight forecast and analysis of the structure.Different targets determine the different proportions of freight tumover ratio for different transportation modes. |
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| Keywords: | scale of freight transportation network cargo turnover volume transportation modal split CCTV model intermodal transportation |
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