基于自然村最大潜势度的区域地质灾害气象预警

以地质灾害详细调查、监测为基础,提出了基于自然村最大潜势度的区域地质灾害预警研究方法,建立了自然村最大潜势度、当日激发降雨与前期有效降雨、坡度等多指标的预警模型,并在哀牢山中段东麓的新平县进行了深入研究,分别建立了该地区地质灾害气象预警和警报指标,以该模型指标研制的自动预警系统经过两年的试运行和运行,效果较好.该方法比较适合我国大比例尺（县级）地区地质灾害气象预警工作,提高了预警的针对性,可以作为西南山区其他县市开展地质灾害气象预警工作的参考.

Meteorological early warning of geological hazards based on maximum potentiality parameter of village

Aceording to the foundation of geological hazard surveys and monitoring data, the author established meteorological early warning method of geological hazard based on maximum potentiality pa- rameter of village. The maximum potentiality parameter of village, intraday induced rainfall and an- tecedent effective precipitation as well as gradient were included in the model. And according to mod- el, the meteorological early warning index and alarm index in Xinping county were established. The effects of geological hazard auto early warning system based on the warning index and alarm index were trusted after it had been operated for two years. The method is suitable for meteorological early warning of geological hazard in China＇s large-scale （county level）. It can improve the relevance of the warning, and other southwest mountain counties and cities can learn from the method working in me- teorological early warning of geological hazard.