| 指数平滑法在滑坡抢险工程中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李剑锋,张卫中,尹光志,康钦容,程国建.指数平滑法在滑坡抢险工程中的应用[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2006,25(5):98-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李剑锋 张卫中 尹光志 康钦容 程国建 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆市地勘局208水文地质工程地质队,重庆,400700;重庆大学,资源及环境科学学院,重庆,400044
2. 重庆大学,资源及环境科学学院,重庆,400044 |
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| 摘 要： | 指数平滑技术是进行预测决策的有效方法,文章首先对指数平滑模型作了简单的介绍,然后根据某滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了建模和预测,预测结果表明,预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明此模型可很好地应用于滑坡位移预测,可为施工决策提供可靠的依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑法 滑坡 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-716X(2006)05-0098-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月9日 |
The application of the exponential smoothing method in the landslide treating engineering |
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| LI Jian-feng,ZHANG Wei-zhong,YIN Guang-zhi,KANG Qin-rong,CHENG Guo-jian.The application of the exponential smoothing method in the landslide treating engineering[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University,2006,25(5):98-100. |
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| Authors: | LI Jian-feng ZHANG Wei-zhong YIN Guang-zhi KANG Qin-rong CHENG Guo-jian |
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| Abstract: | The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is a valid method in forecasting and decision-making.Firstly,the exponential smoothing method is presented in the paper.Secondly,in light of the real landslide conditions,a model is established for the special displacement of some observation points and the prediction which is based on this model came out.The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the fact values error little.It shows that the model may be well applied on the forecast of the landslide deformation.the method can be used in real engineering.And the decision-making can depend on the results we get from the model. |
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| Keywords: | exponential smoothing landslide forecast |
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