| 灰色马尔可夫模型在公路运量弹性系数预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 任其亮.灰色马尔可夫模型在公路运量弹性系数预测中的应用[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2009,28(2):290-293. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任其亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆交通大学,交通运输学院,重庆,400074 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市软科学研究计划项目，重庆市教委科学技术研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对公路运量预测中弹性系数随机波动性较大的问题,结合灰色模型可以揭示预测数据的发展趋势以及马尔可夫预测适合描述随机波动性较大的预测问题的优点,建立了公路运量预测中弹性系数的灰色马尔可夫预测模型;用该模型对北京市公路客运弹性系数进行预测,验证了模型对公路运量中弹性系数进行预测的合理性。研究结果表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型能够较好地提高公路运量预测中弹性系数的预测精度,对于提高公路运量预测精度具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通运输 公路运量预测 弹性系数 灰色系数 马尔可夫 |
Study on Application of Grey-Markov Model to Forecasting Elastic Coefficients in Highway Transportation Volume |
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| REN Qi-liang.Study on Application of Grey-Markov Model to Forecasting Elastic Coefficients in Highway Transportation Volume[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University,2009,28(2):290-293. |
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| Authors: | REN Qi-liang |
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| Institution: | School of Traffic & Transportation;Chongqing Jiaotong University;Chongqing 400074;China |
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| Abstract: | Owing to the great fluctuation of the elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume,the Gray-Markov forecast model is built to forecast elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume,for the grey model can reveal the development trend of forecast data and the Markov model is fit to describe the problem with tempestuous fluctuation.The reasonability of the Gray-Markov model is tested by its application to forecasting the elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume of Beijing.The exam... |
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| Keywords: | transportation highway transportation volume forecast elastic coefficient grey coefficient Markov |
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