基于SD的集装箱海铁联运系统发展研究

在分析集装箱海铁联运发展主要影响因素的基础上,应用系统动力学理论及方法描述了集装箱海铁联运发展状况,通过因果关系图分析了集装箱海铁联运发展、经济发展和运输政策等因果反馈关系,构建了集装箱海铁联运系统发展SD模型,并以大连港为例,验证了模型有效性。选定改进铁路运价形成机制、加强港航铁路建设、港铁信息互通3种政策作为控制变量,应用模型模拟了不同政策对集装箱海铁联运系统及经济发展的影响,并提出相应建议。

Development of Container Sea-Rail Intermodal Transportation System Based on System Dynamics

Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors which is related to the development of container sea-rail intermodal transportation,system dynamics theory and method is used to describe the development situation of the container sea-rail intermodal transportation.By use of casual loop diagram,the relationship among the container sea-rail intermodal transportation development,economic development and transportation policies are analyzed.Meanwhile,SD model of container sea-rail intermodal transportation system development is established and the effectiveness of the model is verified by taking Dalian Port as the example.Taking the three factors as the three controlling variables,which are improving the forming mechanism of transportation tariff,strengthening port and railway construction and information sharing of port and railway,the influence of different policies on the container sea-rail intermodal transportation system and economic development is simulated by the models.Corresponding suggestions are put forward finally.