制造业离岸和回流对我国港口发展的影响

过去百年来，全球范围内的制造业发生了巨大变革.随着科学技术的进步和制造成本的变化，技术中心和制造中心不断转移和分离.进入21世纪，我国制造业发展迅速，带动沿海港口运量规模的增长.近年来，受全球制造业变革的影响，我国制造业开始出现转移趋势. 一方面发达国家将其制造业企业从国外转移到本土，另一方面部分劳动密集型制造业向劳动力成本更低廉的东南亚等发展中国家及地区转移.制造业的这种转出无疑将导致制造业产出量的变化，进而引起我国未来进出口贸易量和港口吞吐量的变化.首先，分析了全球制造业中心历次转移情况及其引发的各转移阶段国际货物运输特征；其次，分析了我国港口吞吐量与制造业规模间的关联性；最后，结合制造业离岸和美国制造业回流趋势重点研究了离岸和回流对我国港口发展的影响.结果表明：我国港口货物吞吐量与第二产业增加值，中美双边贸易额，我国出口总额等因素具有显著相关性；同时，受我国劳动力成本优势降低及美国制造业回流政策驱动，制造业离岸动力增强，制造业回流趋势可能继续保持；考虑到制造业离岸和回流的影响，我国港口吞吐量增长乏力，货运品类结构将由干散货运输向集装箱运输倾斜.未来我国港口应调整资源和集疏运资源配置，大力发展集装箱运输.

Impact of Manufacturing Offshoring and Reshoring on Development of Chinese Ports

Over the past centuries, there have been great changes in the manufacturing industry around the world. With the progress of science and technology, the change of manufacturing cost, technology center and manufacturing center continually transferred and separated. In the 21st century, the rapid development of Chinese manufacturing industry has driven the growth of the volume of coastal ports. In recent years, influenced by the global manufacturing change, new trends of Chinese manufacturing industry commenced. On the one hand, manufacturing companies of developed countries restore to their native land. On the other hand, some laborintensive manufacturing companies offshore to southeast Asia whose cost of labor is lower compared with China. Consequently, the volume of manufacturing production will undoubtedly change to some extent, which will further affect the import and export volume and port throughput. This paper first analyzed the global manufacturing center's previous transfer situation and the characteristics of international cargo transport in different transfer stages. Secondly, the correlation between the throughput and the Chinese manufacturing industry is analyzed. Finally, the paper focused on the characteristics of the trend of offshoring manufacturing in China and the reshoring in the United States, and analyzed their influence on the development of Chinese ports. The results show that the throughput of Chinese ports is significantly correlated with the value- added of secondary industry, the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States and the total amount of China exports and other factors. Simultaneously, driven by the reduction of Chinese labor cost advantage and the reshoring policy of the U.S. manufacturing industry, the trend of offshoring of China's manufacturing industry will strengthen, and the reshoring trend of the U.S. manufacturing industry may be maintained. Considering the influence of offshoring and reshoring of manufacturing industry, the growth of Chinese port throughput will be weak, and the structure of the freight category will shift from dry bulk transportation to container transportation. In the future, Chinese ports should adjust the allocation of capacity and resources of collection and distribution. Consequently, priorities should be put on container transportation.