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| 引用本文： | 崔淑丹,李星野.�ҹ�ˮ·����ҵ����÷�չ��ϵ��Э������[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2007,7(6):21-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔淑丹 李星野 |
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| 作者单位： | ???????? ??????????? 200093 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市自然科学基金(06ZR14144)，上海市重点学科建设(T0502)，中国工程院重点项目(2006-X-16) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用协整理论、Granger因果关系对水路运输业与国民经济的关系进行了研究。研究结果表明：水路运输业的货物周转量、旅客周转量与代表国民经济的GDP之间没有协整关系；水运货运周转量是国民经济发展的Granger原因；水运旅客周转量是水运货运周转量的Granger原因。最后根据计量分析的结果对我国水路运输业的发展提出了结论和建议。
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| 关 键 词： | ?·???? ?????? Э?? Granger?????? |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6744(2007)06-0021-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-7-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年7月11日 |
Co-integration Analysis on the Relationship between the Development of China's Transportation of Waterways and the National Economy |
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| CUI Shu-dan,LI Xing-ye.Co-integration Analysis on the Relationship between the Development of China''''s Transportation of Waterways and the National Economy[J].Transportation Systems Engineering and Information,2007,7(6):21-24. |
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| Authors: | CUI Shu-dan LI Xing-ye |
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| Institution: | College of Management??University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, ;Shanghai 200093??China ; |
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| Abstract: | Based on the theory of Co-integration and Granger causal relationship,Co-integration and Granger causal relationship between transportation of waterways and the national economy have been tested.The results show that there is no Co-integration between freight turnover volume,passenger turnover volume and GDP.Freight turnover volume is Granger causation of GDP.;assenger turnover volume is Granger causation of Freight turnover volume.Finally,the conclusion and suggestions on the development of transportation of waterways have been put forward. |
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| Keywords: | transportation of waterways national economic Co-integration Granger causal relationship |
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