轨道交通换乘常规公交平均候车时间模型

乘客平均候车时间建模在公交网络协调优化研究、公共交通效益分析等诸多研究领域起着至关重要的作用. 本文首先将轨道换乘常规公交的客流分为固定客流和随机客流，并进行客流到站时间分布曲线拟合，结果表明固定客流到站时间的对数正态分布拟合效果最好，而随机客流到站时间的伽马分布拟合效果最好；在此研究的基础上，建立了基于客流分类的换乘客流晚高峰平均候车时间模型；最后，对北京市13号线龙泽站519路公交线路进行了模型应用，以检验模型的准确性. 检验结果表明：模型能够准确地估计晚高峰换乘乘客的平均候车时间，相对误差在2.05％以内.

Average Waiting Time Model for Transfer from Rail Transit to Buses

The modeling of average waiting time for passengers has an important role in several fields of studies, such as the public transport network coordination optimization, the benefit analysis of the public transportation system, and so on. This paper first categorizes passengers transferring from rail transit to buses into two groups, namely, scheduled passengers and random passengers, and conducts the curve-fitting for the arrival time distribution accordingly. It is shown that the lognormal distribution has the best fitting performance for scheduled passengers, and the gamma distribution has the best performance for random passengers. Then, it develops a peak-hour average waiting time model for transferring passengers based on the passenger classification. Finally, it applies the proposed model to the bus line 519 at Longze station of Beijing to examine the accuracy of the model. The examination results demonstrate that the developed model can accurately estimate the peak-hour average waiting time of transferring passengers with a relative error less than 2.05％.