基于MNL模型的城市公共交通出行时间价值估计

在进行公共交通换乘行为变化敏感度分析以及公交票价的制定过程中，均需将出行时间和费用联系起来考虑，出行时间价值是联系出行时间和费用的纽带．本文首先分析了基于随机效用最大化理论的Multinomial Logit（MNL）方式选择模型的基本思想，用MNL方式选择模型的简化模型对出行时间价值进行了量化．接着以北京市为例，考虑出行者的出行时间、费用以及收入等因素，估算出了北京市各种收入群所对应的出行时间价值．然后通过对选择公共交通出行者属性的分析，加权平均各种收入群对应的出行时间价值，最终估计出了北京市城市公共交通的出行时间价值．估算结果符合北京市的实际情况.

Calculation of Time Value for Urban Public Travel with MNL model

Travel time and costs should be considered in the sensitivity analysis of public transport transfer behavior and the formulation of public transport fares, while the value of travel time is the link of them. This paper first analyzes the multinomial Logit (MNL) model based on random utility maximization theory and quantifies the value of travel time with the simplified MNL model. Then, taking Beijing as an example, the paper estimates the travel time values for different income groups, with consideration of their travel time, travel costs, income, and other factors alike. In the final section, .the time value of urban public travel in Beijing is calculated with property analysis of public transport travelers and the average travel time weighting of different income groups. The result well matches the actual situation of Beijing.