居民公交出行OD预测研究

在应用“四步骤法”进行居民公交出行OD 预测中，为了提高出行分布与方式划分预测的精度，本文分别提出了交通阻抗确定新方法和交通小区间公交出行量预测方法. 本文利用各小区内道路节点之间的最短路距离确定小区内及小区间的交通阻抗. 该方法有效避免了传统交通阻抗确定方法的缺陷，将其应用于重力模型预测居民出行分布，预测精度有所提高. 在获得现状居民出行特征的基础上，利用马尔可夫链法预测未来年公交出行总量，然后利用公交出行距离转移曲线具体预测各小区之间的公交出行比例，利用该比例结合公交出行总量获得公交出行OD. 该法可在定量分析的基础上综合考虑城市规划、政策等因素对预测结果的影响，其预测结果更加合理.

On Forecasting of Residents Transit OD

This paper introduces a method for traffic friction and transit trips forecasting between traffic zones to improve the accuracy of traditional 4-phase method. The traffic friction is defined by the shortest distance between the road’s nodes in each traffic zone. The method avoids the defects of traditional method for the traffic friction. Introducing the traffic friction into gravity model on trip distribution, the forecasting accuracy is improved. Based on the characteristics of present urban residents trip, total quantity of resident transit trips can be forecasted with the Markov chain method, and the residents transit trip proportion between every traffic zone can be forecasted with diversion curve of transit trip distance. The transit OD can be obtained on the basis of the total quantity of residents transit trips and transit trip proportion. The proposed quantitative method is more reasonable because the impact of the city’s landscaping planning and policy are taken into account.