基于改进Copula 的海上运输关键节点应急保障能力评估

海上运输关键节点的应急保障是最大限度减少突发事件造成损失的重要方面. 考虑影响海上运输关键节点应急保障能力各因素之间的关联性，因素变量分布情况的影响，以及多维变量导致Copula 函数的参数求解困难等问题，构建基于因子分析(Factor Analysis)和 Copula 函数(FA-Copula)的海上运输关键节点的应急保障能力评估模型，对海上运输关键节点应急保障能力进行评估，分析不同因素的影响. 计算结果显示：整体对比来看，应急能力比较好的是直布罗陀海峡、马六甲海峡和巴拿马运河，比较差的是苏伊士运河；从其中提取的公共因子FA1 来看，马六甲海峡比较好，苏伊士运河比较差；对不同因子变量联合分布比较发现，不同因子变量分布会对结果产生不同的影响.

Evaluation of Emergency Guarantee Capability of Key Nodes in Maritime Transport Based on Improved Copula Function

Emergency guarantee of key nodes in maritime transport is an important aspect to minimize the losses caused by emergencies. This study developed an evaluation model of emergency guarantee capability of key nodes in maritime transport based on factor analysis and Copula function. The modeling considered the following major elements like correlation between the influential factors, factor distributions, and the difficulty of solving Copula function because of multi- dimensional variables. The proposed model was used to evaluate the emergency guarantee capability of key nodes of the existing maritime transport, and the impact of different factors. The results show that the Straits of Gibraltar, Malacca, and Panama Canal have high emergency guarantee capability, and the Suez Canal has relatively low emergency guarantee capability from an overall comparison. However, Malacca Strait has a relatively high FA1 (Factor Analysis) value and Suez Canal has a relatively low FA1 score. Comparing the joint distribution of different variables, the distributions of different variables have varied impacts on the results.