考虑定制出行的儿童通学方式选择行为研究

为系统获取考虑定制出行后儿童通学方式选择的行为模式，在系统选取影响儿童通学方式决策变量的基础上，集成结构方程模型和离散选择模型，提出儿童通学方式选择的混合选择模型(HCM)，以云南省昭通市为案例进行分析.结果表明：所构建的HCM模型相比结构方程模型和离散选择模型具有更高的拟合优度，更适用于儿童通学方式选择行为分析；与小汽车出行方式相比，行为意向对家长选择定制出行方式的影响更大，定制出行方式的普及更多取决于家庭的接受和依赖程度；时间和成本并非是家长选择定制出行方式的首要考虑因素.

Children's School Travel Mode Choice Considering Customized Travel

To obtain the family's mode choice behavior mechanism for children's school travel considering the introduction of the customized travel mode, the variables influencing children's school travel decision was selected systematically first, and the hybrid choice model (HCM) for children's school travel choice was then proposed based on the combination of structural equation model (SEM) and discrete choice model. A verification analysis was conducted by using Zhaotong, Yunnan province as a case area. The results show that: Compared with traditional modes of discrete choice model and SEM, the HCM model shows a higher fitting degree and is more suitable for the analysis of mode choice behavior of children's school travel; Taking car travel mode as a reference, the behavior intention plays a more significant role in parents' choice of customized school is behavior intention, the popularity of customized travel mode mostly depends on families' acceptance and reliance on it; Time and cost are not the primary factors influencing parents' choice of customized travel mode.