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| 引用本文： | 于欣洋,赵伊川.�����ۻ�������Ԥ���о�[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2007,7(4):148-153. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于欣洋 赵伊川 |
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| 作者单位： | ???????′?????ù???????????116026 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文的核心工作是建立了RBF神经网络—Monte Carlo货物吞吐量预测模型，利用大连港货物吞吐量的历史数据，对2006年-2010年以及2020年的大连港货物吞吐量进行预测。以RBF神经网络的预测为基础，利用Monte Carlo仿真方法对大连港货物吞吐量的预测结果进行可信度分析。得到了预测结果区间，以及预测结果在每个区间上出现的概率。文章证明了神经网络—Monte Carlo预测模型在吞吐量预测领域中的可行性，而且预测结果为大连建设东北亚建设航运中心提供了参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | RBF?????? ?????????? ????????????? |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6744（2007）04-0148-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-28 |
A Study of Shipping Cargo Flux Prediction for Dalian Port |
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| YU Xin-yang,ZHAO Yi-chuan.A Study of Shipping Cargo Flux Prediction for Dalian Port[J].Transportation Systems Engineering and Information,2007,7(4):148-153. |
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| Authors: | YU Xin-yang ZHAO Yi-chuan |
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| Institution: | School of Economy and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026 |
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| Abstract: | The author's task in this thesis is to build RBF Network-Monte Carlo cargo throughput predicting model,predicting cargo throughput for Dalian port from 2006 to 2010,plus 2020 single year,based on historical data.In addition,another task in this thesis is to analyze the credit of predicting result by using Monte Carlo,based on RBF Network predicting algorithm.Finally,the probabilities of predicting result in every result extent have been gained.The feasibility of RBF Network-Monte Carlo cargo throughput predicting model is verified in this thesis and the result of prediction can be used as references for Dalian Northeast Asia shipping center construction. |
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| Keywords: | RBF neural network monte carlo cargo throughput predicting |
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