不确定条件下机场群系统均衡配流模型研究

为探索客流在机场群的分布规律，以整个航空出行链为视角，综合考虑空中交通、地面交通和旅客出行选择偏好，构建机场群系统均衡配流模型.以路径时间、机场停留时间、出行票价和旅客类型为主要参考属性，提出机场群系统旅客出行成本模型.由于路径时间与流量相关且存在不确定性，基于预算超出时间对路径时间的均值与方差进行统一度量.综合路径时间、出行票价、机场停留时间与旅客类型，基于Logit模型建立旅客对航空出行路径的选择模型，将机场群系统的客流均衡条件转换为变分不等式.基于投影收缩算法对变分不等式求解，从而得出客流在机场群间的均衡分布状态.算例结果表明，机场群系统均衡配流模型有效建立了客流分布状态，调整路径时间、机场服务水平、票价等因素均可促进客流在机场群间的均衡分布.

Equilibrium Model of Airport Group System under Uncertain Conditions

To discovery the mechanism of the passenger distribution in an airport group system, this paper proposes a passenger equilibrium model. This model jointly considers ground and air traffic from the perspective of an entire trip. A travel cost model of passengers is designed based on travel time, ticket price, time cost in an airport, and the type of passengers. Because of the uncertain of route time, mean- excess travel time is used to describes the mean and variation of route time. Based on the travel cost model, the equilibrium model based on Logit model is represented by a variational inequality. Then the variational inequality is solved by the projection and contraction method, and the equilibrium state among airports is acquired. Numerical experiments are conducted, and the results show that the model can effectively represent the distribution of passengers. Modifying route time, service standards of airports, and ticket prices are all helpful to balance the passengers in the airport group system.