路内停车对非机动车交通行为影响研究

针对路内停车影响下的非机动车越线占用机动车道的行为，采用寿命分析法对越线行为和非机动车流量数据进行建模. 提出有效流量概念描述越线行为发生概率同非机动车流量间的关系，并以此衡量路内停车对非机动车交通行为的影响. 根据越线行为发生情况将流量数据定义为删失数据与完全数据，并分别采用非参数法和参数法进行模型估计. 结果显示，路内停车对非机动车越线行为具有显著影响，会降低非机动车道的有效流量，增大越线行为的发生概率，有效流量分布同非机动车道宽度具有正相关性. 研究结果有助于评价路内停车对非机动车的影响，并为路内停车规划提供依据.

Traffic Behavior Analysis of Non-motorized Vehicleunder Influence of Curb Parking

To analyze the lane-crossing behavior of non-motorized vehicles under the influence of curb parking, the lifetime data analysis method is adopted to examine the observed data for non-motorized vehicles. The concept named valid volume is introduced to describe the relation between the probability of lane-crossing behavior and non-motorized vehicle volume, evaluate the influence of curb parking, then a nonparametric method and a parametric method are used to estimate the model with censored data. The results indicate the curb parking has a significant influence on the traffic behavior of non-motorized vehicles. It can decrease the valid volume and increase the likelihood of lane-crossing behavior. The results are expected to help evaluate the influence of curb parking on non-motorized vehicles and improve the planning and management of curb parking.