生命周期视角下货运通道能耗测度与节能潜力分析

货运能耗的系统测度和节能潜力分析，对制定有效的节能策略至关重要。本文从生命周期视角出发，构建货运能耗系统测度和节能潜力分析框架，量化供给侧和需求侧各因素对货运能耗的影响，从而识别关键因素。鉴于不同区域资源禀赋及货运供需特征差异，将该框架应用于义乌-宁波集装箱货运通道。结果表明：忽视生命周期和运输链次要活动，特别是前者，会显著低估货运能耗，导致各节能策略真实贡献评估有偏；综合能耗的公路运输直接能耗弹性为 0.67，远高于供给侧和需求侧其他能耗影响因素，是中短期货运节能的重中之重；现有条件下“公 转铁”策略单独实施的节能效果欠佳，建议中短期搭配直接能耗节能策略，而中长期宜搭配间接能耗节能策略。

Energy Consumption Measurement and Energy-saving Potential Analysis of Freight Corridors from Perspective of Life Cycle

Systematic energy consumption measurement and energy-saving potential analysis of freight transportation are crucial to formulating energy-efficient strategies. An analysis framework for energy consumption measurement and energy- saving potential of freight transportation is constructed from life cycle perspective to quantify the impact of various supply-side and demand-side factors and to identify the key influencing factors. Given that the differences in resource endowments and supply- demand characteristics in different regions, this framework is applied to the YiwuNingbo container freight corridor. The results show that: ignoring life cycle and secondary activities of transportation chain, especially the former, would underestimate the energy consumption, which would lead to inaccurate evaluation of the contribution of each energy-saving strategy; the direct energy consumption of road transportation for embodied energy consumption elasticity is 0.67, which is much higher than that of other influencing factors of the supply- side and demand-side, and it should be given the top priority for freight transportation energy-saving in the short-/mediumterm; under the current conditions, the energy-saving effect of road-to-rail strategy is limited if without other strategies, and the energy-saving strategies for direct energy consumption are recommended in the short-/medium-term, and the energy-saving strategies for indirect energy consumption are recommended in the medium-/long-term.