中国进口铁矿石海运网络抗毁性仿真

为研究中国进口铁矿石海运网络应对重大事件攻击下的抗毁性和不同保障措施的有效性，解决传统抗毁性评估测度未能考虑网络整体流量和节点负荷状态的问题，针对现实情景下大型船舶挂靠枢纽进口港后进行沿海中转的枢纽-转运网络特殊性，搭建了中国进口铁矿石海运网络抗毁性模型和评估指标。采用中国进口铁矿石相关港口和航运数据搭建初始网络，并针对不同枢纽进口港数量的网络进行各种攻击策略下的仿真分析。仿真结果表明，由于船舶航线可以进行调整后重新分配货载运输，网络具备一定自我修复能力，但在关键节点受冲击后网络抗毁性将发生突变。此外，提高过载能力可以有效增强网络抗毁性，但其边际增强效益在过载能力达到临界点后变化明显，且提升抗毁性的同时可能会加剧网络拥堵。因此需要加强对黑德兰港、日照 港等网络重要节点的保护，适时增加枢纽进口港和提升港口过载能力，保障新冠肺炎疫情等重大事件冲击下中国进口铁矿石海运网络的抗毁性，同时合理调配码头堆场、设备等资源防范和应对网络拥堵等情况。

Invulnerability Simulation Analysis of Chinese Iron Ore Imports Shipping Network

To assess the resistance of the shipping network of Chinese iron ore imports and the effectiveness of different safeguards, an invulnerability simulation model was established to fill the gap that traditional evaluation methods fail to consider the overall flow and nodes load state of the network. The data of a state-owned enterprise, major export ports in the world and major import ports in China were used to build the initial network. The network with different numbers of import ports was attacked in particular ways. The simulation results show that the network has a certain self- healing ability after the network is attacked, because of the adjusted ability of ship routes and redistribution of cargo load, but the network invulnerability will suddenly change after the key nodes are affected. The improvement of overload capacity has obvious marginal changes in improving network invulnerability if the overload capacity reaches a critical point, and improving the network survivability may aggravate network congestion. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the protection of key nodes, increase the number of import ports, and enhance the overload capacity of the ports, to enhance the invulnerability of the Chinese iron ore import shipping network under the COVID-19 and other critical events. Meanwhile, resources such as wharf yards and equipment should be reasonably allocated to prevent and deal with network congestion.