港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为，将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量，构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据，对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明，低运量倾向选择公路运输，托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视，对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视，陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响，巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.

Nested Logit Model for the Joint Choice of Seaport,Inland Mode and Dry Port

To describe the seaport, inland mode and dry port choice, this paper identifies factors including seaport cost, waiting time, ship calls, goods value, freight volume, transport cost, transit and custom clearance time, reliability and dry port service as utility variables. The nested Logit model is built, with seaport choice on the upper layer and inland mode and dry port choice on the lower layer. The data from a combined stated preference and revealed preference survey of shippers and freight forwarders in Liaoning Province is used to calibrate the parameters. The results show that low freight volume prefers road transport. Transport cost, transit and custom clearance time are more valued in intermodal transport than in road transport. Reliability is more valued in road transport than in intermodal transport. Dry port service has a significant positive effect on intermodal transport. The nested Logit model is statistically more accurate than the MNL model.