轨道交通拥挤传播速率量化模型研究

轨道交通作为综合客运交通系统的骨干，影响着城市客运交通乃至社会经济的正常运转，对其大客流拥挤传播规律的研究有助于提高轨道交通系统的运输安全和效率.以往学者研究的大客流传播模型中往往参数量化缺失或者缺乏实际意义，因此，本文着眼于量化大客流传播模型中的参数，旨在构建客流影响下的拥挤传播模型.首先，分析大客流传播模型中参数及其影响因素，阐述现有传播速率量化模型；其次，以客流的不确定性作为研究对象，分析客流传播特征；再次，通过轨道交通客流数据量化模型参数相关的客流和列车剩余载客能力，界定大客流影响阈值；然后，构建考虑客流因素的传染病模型，量化拥挤传播速率，据此分析客流对轨道交通拥挤传播的影响；最后，以北京地铁13号线为例，比较不同时段、不同换乘情况下其大客流拥挤传播影响范围的差异，分析其原因，从而为优化轨道交通系统的服务水平及大客流事件应急处置提供参考和借鉴.

Congestion Propagation Quantization Model about Rail Transit System

The rail transit has become the backbone of the integrated passenger transport system. It affects the normal operation of the urban passenger transport and the social economy as well. The study of the law of the congestion propagation rate helps to improve the safety and the efficiency of the rail transit system. Previous attempts to describe the oversaturated condition propagation are lack of detailed parameter or not in accordance with the actual situation. The parameters for the oversaturated condition propagation model are estimated in this paper and the congestion propagation model considered the passenger flow can be obtained. Firstly, it analyzes the parameters and their influence factors in the oversaturated conditions propagation model and the comparison about the congestion propagation quantization is proposed. Secondly, the character of the passenger flow is conducted as its research objective. Thirdly, the threshold of the large passenger flow can be established through the data of the passenger flow and remain capacity of the train. Fourthly, the quantitative model of the congestion propagation rate is constructed. The influence of the passenger flow can be obtained by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Finally, the Beijing rail transit line 13 is illustrated. The congestion propagation rate in different time and different transfer situations can be conducted. It is beneficial for help optimizing the service of the rail transit system, and for the emergency disposal of the urging surging passenger flow.