基于人群特征的三维约束重力模型研究

双约束和现有三约束重力模型在不同人群对出行阻抗的认知方面均采取平均化处理的方法，与实际出行情况有明显的差异.针对不同人群对出行阻抗的认知程度不同，提出了基于人群特征的三维约束重力模型改进方法.在出行生成环节中将不同人群分开，设计不同人群的出行量预测算法.在重力模型改进中，按照不同人群对第三维约束的接受程度，对人群出行量进行分类并标定相应的缩放系数.以岳阳市交通分布模型为例，对长距离出行约束进行分析，并分别应用双约束和改进的三维约束重力模型进行计算，结果说明了改进的三维约束重力模型的可行性与优越性.

Three-dimensional Constrained Gravity Model Based on Population Characteristics

The double-constrained and the existing tri-constrained gravity model deal with the travel resistance of different populations in an average way, and it is significantly different from the actual situation. According to the different cognition degree of different people on trip impedance, the improved method of tri-constrained gravity model based on crowd characteristics is put forward. In the trip generation process, different groups of people are separated, and the travel volume forecasting algorithms for different populations are designed. During the improvement of gravity model, the crowd volume is classified and the corresponding scaling factor is calibrated according to the acceptance degree of different crowd to the third constrain. The long distance travel constraint analysis in the model of traffic distribution of Yueyang is taken as an example. The feasibility and superiority of the improved tri-constrained gravity model are approved by the forecasting result compared with traditional doubleconstrained gravity model.