基于实时信息的公交运行速度控制策略与算法研究

针对公交运行到站时间不稳定的现象，本文提出实时的公交速度控制方法，以车头时距平均绝对误差最小为目标进行求解.设计了3种公交运行场景，基于实时道路交通状态及乘客到达率，求解期望速度.并通过数值仿真对公交车头时距的稳定性、公交运行时间的可靠性、乘客等待平均时间及运行速度进行评价.结果显示，3种场景下，不考虑道路交通流影响的速度控制方法效果最佳，可以提高公交车头时距的稳定性(77.63%)及公交运行的可靠性(93.5%).如进一步考虑道路交通流影响，乘客的平均等车时间会略有增加(6.12%).因此速度控制方法更适用于受道路交通流影响较小或长度较短的线路.此外，本研究还发现，在要达到公交运行可靠性的目标下，公交站间运行速度并不是越快越好.

Bus Speed Control Strategy and Algorithm Based on Real-time Information

According to the unstable phenomenon of bus arrival time, a real-time bus speed control strategy is proposed in this paper, aiming at minimizing the mean absolute error of bus headway. Three kinds of bus operation scenes are designed, and the expected speed is calculated based on the real time traffic state and the passenger arrival rate. Through numerical simulation, the stability of the bus headway, the reliability of the bus running time, the average waiting time of the passengers and the speed of the operation are evaluated. The results show that the strategy can improve bus headway stability about 77.63% and bus operation reliability about 93.5%, which is the best in the three scenarios. However, the average waiting time for passengers will increase about 6.12% when the impact of road traffic flow is considered. Therefore, the strategy is more effective for improving stability of the route which is less affected by the traffic flow or shorter in length. To achieve the goal of improving stability, the target bus is not necessary to travel as fast as possible.