都市圈通勤出行行为特性分析与建模

为研究都市圈范围内通勤出行的交通方式选择行为，分析出行特性，揭示个体属性、家庭属性及出行属性对方式选择的影响，本文建立都市圈通勤出行Nested Logit 模型，对北京都市圈内廊坊市“北三县”的4 385 个进京通勤者的出行方式选择机理进行研究. 结果表明，出行方式的费用、出行时间及换乘次数均对通勤者出行方式选择产生显著影响. 为验证模型的有效性，提出两种政策改善方案，分析各方案下出行方式划分率变化情况，数据显示综合改善效果下小汽车的出行方式比例下降2.46%，公交与地铁的出行比例分别提高1.73%和 0.75%，表明方案对交通方式分担率改善效果明显.

Analyzing and Modeling Commuting Behavior Characteristics in Metropolitan Area

In order to study the mode choice behavior of commuting in the metropolitan area, analyze the travel characteristics, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel attributes on the mode choice, this paper established the Nested Logit model for commuting in the metropolitan area, and conducted research on 4 385 commuters in the LangFang“North Three Counties”of the Beijing metropolitan area. The analysis of travel cost, travel time and transfer times have significant effects on the commuter travel mode choice. Two policy improvement schemes, analysis of the change of travel mode partition rate, is proposed to verify the validity of the model. Base on the integrated improvement, the proportion of car mode choice decrease 2.46%, meanwhile, the percentage of bus and subway increase 1.73% and 0.75% respectively. The scheme has a notable result in improving the sharing rate of traffic modes.