未来城市自动驾驶共享汽车规模研究：以上海为例

随着自动驾驶技术的发展，未来以自动驾驶共享汽车(Shared Autonomous Vehicle, SAV)替代有人驾驶汽车成为可能. 使用SAV满足城市居民机动化出行需求的情况下，研究 SAV的车辆规模. 从上海市300 万手机用户信令数据中提取机动化出行需求，考虑上海市实际路况的影响，建立基于车辆可共享网络的图论模型，将最小车队规模问题转化为有向无环图的最小路径覆盖问题，利用Hopcroft-Karp 算法求解. 求解得到，12.8 万辆SAV可以满足300 万手机用户的机动化出行需求. 研究最大调度时间限制、服务范围限制、交通拥堵对SAV车辆规模的影响，为自动驾驶技术普及后，从城市层面确定SAV的车队规模及相应基础设施规划提供参考.

Exploring Fleet Size of Shared Autonomous Vehicles in Future City: A Case Study in Shanghai

The development of autonomous driving technology has made it possible to replace traditional manned vehicles with Shared Autonomous Vehicles(SAV) in the future. The SAV' s fleet size problem is studied in the case of using SAV to meet all motorized travel demands of residents. The cell phone signaling data of 3 million users in Shanghai was used, and the motorized travel demands were extracted from it. The impact of actual road conditions in Shanghai was considered. A graph theory model based on the vehicle-sharing network was established to convert the minimum fleet size problem into the minimum path cover problem of directed acyclic graphs, which was solved by the Hopcroft-Karp algorithm. 128 000 SAVs are needed to meet the motorized travel demands of 3 million cell phone users. The impact of maximum scheduling time limit, service area limitation and traffic congestion on fleet size are also studied. Providing a reference for determining the fleet size of SAVs and corresponding infrastructure planning at the city level after the popularization of the autopilot technology.