基于空间计量模型的机场网络溢出效应研究

机场对区域经济发展具有重要支撑作用，但从航线网络视角进行研究的文献还比较少.本文建立了空间面板计量模型，以中国大陆 45个主要枢纽机场为例定量研究了机场对区域经济的直接效应、网络溢出效应和总体效应.研究表明：机场客运量对区域经济具有显著正向网络溢出效应，客运量每提高 10%，其网络溢出效应达到 8.25%；货运量仅对本地城市 GDP具有正向影响，其溢出效应未能通过显著性检验.同时发现，机场客货量对航线网络中相连城市的溢出效应均大于其对本地经济的直接效应，忽视网络溢出效应会低估机场区域经济的总体贡献.研究成果对科学评价机场对经济发展的作用具有参考价值.

Airport Network Spillover Effect with Spatial Econometric Models

Airport plays an important role in developing regional economy, but there are few studies on this topic from the flight network perspective. This paper established spatial panel econometric models, and studied the direct effects, network spillover effects and total effects of the airport on regional economy with 45 major hub airports in China mainland as an example. The results show that passenger traffic volume of the airport has a significant positive network spillover effect on the regional economy. For every 10% increase in passenger traffic, the network effect reaches 8.25%. The air cargo volume has only a positive impact on the GDP of the local city, and its spillover effect fails to pass significant test. Meanwhile, it is found that the spillover effect of airport passenger and cargo on connected cities in the network is greater than its direct effect on the local economy. Neglecting the network spillover effects will underestimate the overall contribution of airports to regional economy. The research results have reference values for evaluating the effects of airport on economic development.