基于需求弹性的城市公交票价优化方法及实证分析

城市公交票价是公交系统健康发展的重要因素，票价制定需兼顾公交企业的市场性和公益性双重属性，在保证服务质量的同时，考虑运营成本和最大限度吸引公交需求，实现经济效益和社会效益的双赢.在本文中，根据用户均衡理论，构建了城市多方式交通出行的需求分析模型，采用灵敏度分析方法给出了城市公交价格—需求弹性的计算方法.在此基础上，充分考虑了各种方式的交通特征、公交需求弹性、公交运营成本及政府限价等因素，提出了城市公交票价优化的数学规划模型，并给出了求解算法.最后，以国内某城市居民出行调查及公交运营数据为基础，分析了不同条件下公交客运需求的变化规律及城市公交票价的优化策略.

Optimal Algorithm and Empirical Analysis for Urban Transit Pricing Based on Demand Elasticity

Urban bus fare is an important factor in the healthy development of public transport systems. Fare pricing must take into account the dual nature of marketability and public welfare of bus enterprises. While ensuring the quality of services, it should also consider operating costs and maximize public transport demand so as to achieve both economic and social benefits. This paper, according to the theory of user equilibrium, constructs a demand analysis model for urban multi-modal transportation trips. The sensitivity analysis method is used to get the calculation method of urban public transport price-demand elasticity. On this basis, a bi-level planning model for city bus fare optimization and corresponding solution algorithm are proposed by fully considering the impact of various factors such as traffic characteristics of various modes, bus demand elasticity, bus operating costs, and government price limits. Finally, based on a residents' travel survey and bus operation data, the changing law of the bus demand under different conditions and the optimization strategy of urban bus fares are analyzed.