复杂供应链网络中牛鞭效应的评估

牛鞭效应的存在严重影响了供应链网络的运作效率和管理复杂度.本文首先构建了供应链网络中库存状态的系统动力学机制，基于线性定常策略中的订货点策略，通过客户节点需求扰动导致供应商与中间商的库存波动对牛鞭效应进行了刻画，提出一种复杂供应链网络牛鞭效应的评估方法；随后考虑到供应链网络具有复杂网络的结构特征，本文对无标度供应链网络和随机网络中的牛鞭效应进行了量化分析.通过案例研究发现，节点库存波动与演化时间存在指数函数的关系，可以定量分析牛鞭效应对节点的影响程度，网络拓扑结构的变化对牛鞭效应的影响有限，但网络规模对牛鞭效应具有显著影响.

Assessing Bullwhip Effect in Complex Supply Chain Networks

Bullwhip effect seriously affects the operation efficiency of supply chain networks and management complexity. In order to reduce these effects, system dynamic mechanism is built for inventory level in supply chain networks firstly. Due to the demand disturbance of customers, the inventory fluctuations of vendors or suppliers are used to measure bullwhip effect which based on one of linear and time-invariant policies, order-up-to policy. Since the complexity of supply chain network structure, a novel evaluation method is presented to measure bullwhip effect in different network topologies. Case studies show that different network topologies do not have an obvious impact on bullwhip effect, but the network size may affect how serious bullwhip effect will be.