基于运行数据的航班运行关键风险因素推断

为降低由于运行控制人员个体差异导致的航班运行风险，提升航空公司运行 控制能力，通过对航班运行程序的系统分析，结合运行数据，从飞行机组、机场、天气、航 路和航空器等运行角度筛选风险因素，建立航班运行控制风险评估指标体系；利用基于 事故树的贝叶斯网络分析方法，以历年不安全事件报告为样本，正向推理预测得到不安 全事件发生概率；综合3 种重要度分析结果，辨识关键致险因素.结果表明，机长和副驾驶 技术水平、机组间搭配、与空管人员配合等5 项关键风险因素概率值超过了40%，严重影 响航班运行安全.风险推断结果与实际运行情况相符.

Flight Operation Key Risk Factors Inference Based on Operation Data

In order to reduce the flight operation risk caused by flight operation controllers’individual differences, and further improve the airlines operation control ability, based on the systemic analysis of flight operation procedures, combined with the operation data, screening of risk factors from the aspects of flight crew, airports, weather, routes and aircraft, the flight operation control risk assessment index is established. Using the Bayesian network analysis method based on the fault tree and insecurity event analysis reports over the years as the sample data, the probability of occurrence of unsafe events by forward reasoning is predicted. Adopting three types of importance index analysis to identify the key risk factors. The result shows that five key risk factors probability value are more than 40% resulting in a high flight operation risk value, such as pilot and co- pilot’s technical level, crew matching and air traffic controller cooperation, etc. Risk inference result is entirely consistent with actual operation situation．