基于能源链的纯电动公交车全生命周期CO2减排效果研究

为准确量化纯电动公交车CO₂减排效果，更好地推动纯电动公交车在城市公交领域的推广应用，本文从能源链角度对纯电动公交车全生命周期的CO₂减排效果进行了研究.基于能源消耗数据，构建了基于能源链的纯电动公交车全生命周期CO₂排放模型；采用单因素敏感性分析法对排放模型的主要影响因素进行了分析，并基于此采用情景分析法建立了CO₂ 减排效果分析方法；通过实际案例及情景设置分析了现阶段及不同场景下纯电动公交车的CO₂减排效果.结果表明：在相同运营环境下，相比柴油公交车，纯电动公交车能源链全生命周期每百公里可以实现CO₂减排61.20%；在设定的不同情景下，2025年，2035年，2050年纯电动公交车的使用将分别实现每天CO₂减排134 712.36 t，253 566.80 t，326 323.74 t.

CO2 Emission Reduction Effect of Electric Bus Based on Energy Chain in Life Cycle

In order to accurately quantify the effect of CO₂ emission reduction of electric bus and promote the popularization and application of electric bus in the field of urban public transportation, this paper studies the CO₂ emission reduction effect of electric buses from the perspective of energy chain. Firstly, the CO₂ emission model of electric bus energy chain is constructed based on the data of energy consumption. Secondly, the main influencing factors of the emission model are analyzed by single factor sensitivity analysis, and the analysis method of CO₂ emission reduction is established based on the scenario analysis method. Finally, through actual cases and scenario settings, the CO₂ emission reduction effect of pure electric buses at different stages is analyzed. The results show that: the life cycle CO₂ emission of the electric bus energy chain is reduced by 61.20% under the same operating environment, compared to the diesel bus; under different scenarios, 134 712.36, 253 566.80, 326 323.74 tons of CO₂ emissions reduction per day are achieved respectively in 2025, 2035, 2050.