逐日路径演化中出行者信息偏好的实验分析

在逐日出行过程中,出行者对各类信息的偏好是一个动态变化的过程,不同出行者对同类信息的偏好也不同.本研究搭建不同信息条件下逐日路径选择实验场景,用信息偏好系数表征不同类别信息对出行者感知时间影响的相对权重,研究出行者信息偏好的演化规律与分布特征.实验结果表明,出行个体信息偏好的演化存在3种类型,出行群体对感知时间的信息偏好系数先震荡增加后逐步稳定,出行个体对感知时间的信息偏好系数在出行群体中成正态分布.与只提供完全历史信息相比,同时提供基于指数平滑法的系统预测信息会降低出行者对感知时间的偏好.

Experimental Analysis of Diver’s Information Preference under Day-to-day Traffic Dynamics

The information preference of travelers under day- to- day route choice is dynamical, also, different travelers have different information preference on same traffic information. We set up day-to-day route choice experiment under different traffic information release method. The information preference factor is used to represent the weight of certain types of information in the formation of travel time forecasts under day- to- day route choice. We study the dynamics and distribution of travelers’information preference and then analyze the information preference changes under different traffic information release method. Dynamics of individual’information preference factor of perception time have three types: smooth- shock type, decline-shock type, ascend-shock type. The information preference factor of perception time increase at first and then gradually become relatively stable, but still fluctuating. The information preference factor of perception time obeys the normal distribution. Compared with condition only historical information provided, providing forecast information calculated by Exponential Smoothing at the same time can reduce information preference of perception time.