基于比功率分布的排放因子速度修正误差控制研究

高分辨率的排放因子是进行交通能耗排放测算的重要参数，然而，由于数据采集与质量控 制问题，排放因子速度修正曲线常存在异常波动。为提高排放因子速度修正结果的准确性，本文 分别从比功率分布和排放率两个角度分析排放因子敏感性和区间容许误差，建立机动车工况数 据和PEMS排放数据需求量计算模型。敏感性分析结果表明，个别比功率区间分布误差是造成 排放因子速度修正曲线产生异常波动的重要原因；排放率误差会导致排放因子速度修正结果出 现整体性误差。数值模拟计算结果表明，在95%的置信水平下，平均速度在20~120 km·h-1内，控 制快速路CO2排放因子速度修正误差不超过1%：需采集40 min的排放数据，细化至1 kW·t-1 粒度 下各比功率区间数据需求量差异显著；各平均速度下需采集710 min工况数据，相同误差下，80~ 120 km·h-1 内工况数据需求量更低；为进一步消除曲线的异常波动，需大量增加平均速度为64~ 80 km·h-1 范围内的工况数据量。本文的研究结果对工况和排放数据的采集工作有实际指导意 义，可有效克服曲线异常波动问题，提高排放因子结果可靠性，为节能减排工作提供支持。

Correction Errors Control of Emission Factors Speed Based on VSP Distributions

Emission factors in high resolution are important to the calculation of energy consumption and emissions from traffic. However, due to the problem of data collection and quality control, the correction curve of emission factors speed often has abnormal fluctuations. In order to improve the accuracy of the emission factors speed, from the perspective of the VSP distributions and emission rates respectively, the emission factors sensitivity and allowable error are analyzed in this paper. Then, the demand calculation models of vehicle operation data and PEMS emission data are established. The results of sensitivity analysis show that, the distribution error of individual VSPBin is an important reason for the abnormal fluctuation of the correction curve of emission factors speed while the emission rate error will lead to the overall errors of the correction curve. The numerical simulation calculation results show that, for a 95% confidence level, to control the expressway CO2 emission factors speed correction error less than 1% within the average speed range of 20~120 km·h-1 ; the emission data for 40 minutes needs to be collected, and when the particle size is refined to 1 kW·t-1 , the demand in each VSPBin is significantly different; the vehicle operation data for 710 minutes at every average speed needs to be collected, and the data demand within 80~120 km·h-1 is lower under the same error; in order to further eliminate the abnormal fluctuation of the emission factors speed correction curve, it is necessary to greatly increase the number of vehicle operation data with the average speed in the range of 64~80 km· h-1 . The research results of this paper have practical guiding significance for the collection of vehicle operation and emission data, can effectively overcome the problem of abnormal fluctuation of curve and improve the reliability of emissionfactor results, and provide support for energy conservation and emission reduction.