考虑财政补贴的电动公交车队置换优化模型

为解决公交车队置换问题，分析财政补贴政策对公交车队电动化的影响，本文考虑财政补贴、温室气体排放水平等因素，以公交车队生命周期成本最小为优化目标，建立公交车队置换的混合整数规划模型，使用CPLEX软件求解模型，获得最优精确解。以2017年北京市19路公交车队为算例进行计算，得出最优的车辆购置方案、充电桩购置方案、车辆淘汰方案，最优方案的生命周期成本为21289.7万元，温室气体排放量为2488.4 吨二氧化碳当量。针对财政补贴、最终电动公交比例、温室气体排放水平等参数进行敏感性分析。分析结果表明：财政补贴从成本及碳排放角度对公交电动化有正面促进作用，但延缓了公交电动化的进程；短期内混合动力公交成本优势明显，长期来看，电动公交具有可观的减排潜力。

Optimization Model of Electric Bus Fleet Replacement Considering Financial Subsidies

To solve the problem of bus fleet replacement and analyze the influence of financial subsidy policy on bus fleet electrification, this paper takes financial subsidy, greenhouse gas emission level, and other factors into consideration, and takes the minimum life cycle cost of bus fleet as the optimization objective, establishes a mixedinteger programming model of bus fleet replacement, and uses CPLEX software to solve the model to obtain the optimal solution. Taking Beijing No.19 bus fleet in 2017 as an example, the optimal vehicle purchase scheme, the charging pile purchase scheme, and the vehicle elimination scheme are obtained. The optimal scheme's life cycle cost is 212897000 yuan, and the greenhouse gas emission is 2488.4 tons of CO2 equivalent. Based on the sensitivity analysis of financial subsidies, the final proportion of electric bus, greenhouse gas emission level, and other parameters, the results show that: financial subsidies have a positive effect on the bus fleet electrification from the perspective of cost but delay the process of the bus fleet electrification; in the short term, the cost advantage of the hybrid bus is obvious, and in the long term, the electric bus has considerable emission reduction potential.