海南自贸港背景下海口市对外客运量预测研究

针对典型的海岛型城市海口市，综合考虑经济、政策、基础设施等多维度定性、定量影响因素，构建系统动力学模型，预测2020-2035年海口市对外客运需求量。预测结果显示，未来15年海口市对外客运需求呈稳步上升趋势，预计在2035年对外客运总量将突破8000万人次。GDP敏感性分析结果表明，当增速大于9%时，当前设施建设计划需要进一步加强，提前提高交通设施的供给能力；就业引进人口敏感性分析得出，人才引进规模控制在100万人左右可实现最大的经济效益，比60万人、140万人分别高出6.9%、5.1%；两种主要对外交通方式(机场和高铁)建设时序敏感性分析结果表明，机场开通相比高铁可拉动需求增长提高6.3%，这充分说明航空是海岛型城市对外出行的主要方式。

Forecast of Haikou External Passenger Volume Considering Free Trade Port in Hainan Province

This paper predicts the 2020 to 2035 external passenger transport demand of a typical sea island city-Haikou in Hainan Province. A system dynamics model was developed to incorporate multi- dimensional qualitative and quantitative influencing factors such as economy, policy, and infrastructure. The forecast results show that the demand for foreign passenger transport in Haikou will experience a steady increase in the next 15 years. and the total number of foreign passenger transport is expected to exceed 80 million in 2035. After a sensitivity analysis of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the result shows that when the growth rate is greater than 9%, the current facility construction plan needs to be further strengthened to proactively improve the supply capacity of transportation facilities. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the introduced population, it is concluded that the maximum economic benefit can be achieved when the scale of talent introduction is controlled at about 1 million people, the benefit is 6.9% higher than 0.6 million talent introduction and 5.1% higher than and the 1.4 million talent introduction. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the construction time sequence of airport and high- speed rail, the result shows that comparing with high- speed rail, the opening of airport can boost the growth of demand by 6.3% , which also indicates that aviation is a major way of external travel in sea island cities.