主观拥堵感知下驾驶人路径调整行为决策研究

为深入调查研究交通拥挤的形成机制和扩散规律，本文针对交通拥堵形成和消散的内因， 即驾驶人在拥挤状态下路径的研判调整行为进行研究。设计基于全方位视角场景的驾驶人主观 拥堵感知实验，通过采集驾驶人个体特征、出行特征和交通流参数，结合驾驶人的主观拥堵评分 和路径调整决策，采用方差分析方法，探究驾驶人个体特征和出行特征对路径调整决策的差异 性。基于二项Logistic建立主观拥堵状态下路径调整行为模型，进一步量化所选驾驶人个体特征 和出行特征对路径调整决策产生的具体影响。研究表明：驾驶人个体和出行特征因素不同导致 路径调整决策产生显著性差异，其中，男性、老年人、低驾龄、出行次数少，以及弹性出行的人群更 青睐于保持原路径行驶；调整路径后增加的行驶距离占剩余行驶距离比例越大，保持原路径行驶 的可能性越大；熟悉周边路网的人群保持原路径的可能性是陌生人群的11.3%；区间车速每增加 1 km·h-1，驾驶人保持原路径行驶的可能性为之前的1.223倍。

Route Adjustment Behavior Decision-making Based on Driver's Congestion Perception

To further understand the formation mechanism and diffusion law of traffic congestion, this paper investigates drivers' route finding and adjusting behaviors in traffic congestions. The driver's perception on congestions was defined from experiments based on the omni-directional scene. By collecting the driver's individual characteristics, travel characteristics, and the traffic flow parameters, this study uses the variance analysis to examine the impact of drivers' individual characteristic and travel characteristics on driving route decision making. The Binomial Logistic is used to establish a route adjustment behavior model with driver's perceptions on congestions to further quantify the correlation between driver characteristics and route adjustments. The results indicate that different driver characteristics and travel characteristics would result in significantly different decisions on route adjustment in traffic congestions. For example, men, the elderly, and drivers with less driving experiences, less frequent travels, and flexible travels are more likely to keep the original route than other groups; when the driving distance increase cause by the route adjustment accounts for a large proportion of the remaining driving distance, of the driver is more likely to keep the original route. Drivers who are familiar with the road network are 11.3% times more likely to maintain the original route than other drivers; for every increase of 1 km · h- 1 running speed, the probability that the driver maintains the original route is 1.223 times than before speed increases.