面向新城的土地利用-交通整体规划建模方法

在城市高质量发展的背景下，大量城市新城的规划缺乏新城与主城协同的土地利用与交通系统的一体化规划，造成众多的不协调问题，如新城与主城间交通走廊拥堵和“鬼城”等。因 此，本文基于新城、主城的土地利用与交通系统的交互关系，提出面向新城规划的城市土地利用- 交通整体规划模型建模方法。通过为主城与新城分别构建相应的宏观经济预测模块、社会经济活动空间分配模块和空间开发模块，客观地模拟主城与新城各种社会经济活动的空间分布、相应土地及空间开发、交通基础设施建设和交通需求时变等特征，同时兼顾新城与主城开发过程中的社会经济发展目标及土地空间制约条件，针对新城与主城两者之间的交互关系(如客货运输)对交通需求进行一体化预测，实现新城与主城、土地利用与交通系统的整体规划与协同。本文以武汉市长江新城为研究案例，基于相关数据构建面向新城和主城的 PECAS(Production-ExchangeConsumption-Allocation-System)土地利用与交通整体规划模型，分析并评价了其2015-2035年的土地利用形态及交通系统的平衡性，评价结果验证了本文建模方法的有效性。

Development of a New Town Planning Method Using an Integrated Land Use-transport Model

With the massive development of new towns in China, a large number of new towns have been planned with traditional planning methods, which usually plan“old town”and“new town”independently and lack the considerations of integrating land-use and transportation systems, and have resulted in many issues within the two (such as traffic congestion at“old town”and“new town”corridors and“ghost town”). Therefore, based on the strong interaction between the land use and transportation system of the“old town”and the“new town”, this paper proposes an integrated land-use transport modeling method for closing the gap within the existing new town planning process. By developing a macroeconomic forecasting module, Activity allocation (AA) module, and Space Development (SD) module independently for the two counterparts, the activity totals and its allocation, required land/space supply are predicted and simulated for the old town and the new town area separately, whereas the transportation demand of the two is simultaneously modeled. Such a method has achieved a more objective simulation of the path- dependent characteristics of the new town development process, while taking into account the socio-economic development target and land space constraints in the development of the new town and the old town. This paper takes the Yangtze River New Town (YRNT) of the City of Wuhan as the case study and an integrated land use transport model for the entire City of Wuhan (including both new and old town) is developed and applied to the case study. The coordination of the land use and transport system of the new town is also numerically accessed from the year 2015 to 2035. Study results clearly show that the proposed modeling method is feasible and practical.