城市道路交通承载力研究综述

多年来，广泛的应用场景和领域使交通承载力的基础理论和量化研究方法等成为学术界的热点研究问题。作为城市交通可持续发展的重要指标，交通承载力向上与城市交通规划，向下与机动车需求管理融合，可以得到多个延伸的科研选题。在特定的时空网络中，一定的资源和环境约束条件下，城市道路交通承载力就是道路网络或基础设施现有或未来的承载状态，即交通资源达到最优配置、交通环境稳定时，道路交通设施单元或系统的承载能力或阈值。本文通过系统梳理城市道路交通承载力的国内外研究现状，从基础理论、量化研究方法和实践应用这3方面提出存在问题和发展建议。现有城市道路交通承载力研究存在理论体系不完善，评价量化方法有效性难以保证，评价指标选取缺少标准化，复杂系统承载力缺乏综合的内外部耦合协调分析，以及应用技术方法落后等问题。首先，未来可以建立较完善的交通承载力理论体系；其次，标准化评价指标，建立有效评价模型和耦合协调模型，研究交通系统内外部的耦合协调机制，提出协同优化策略；最后，改进应用技术方法，拓展自身及交叉领域应用。为城市道路交通承载力研究提供理论保障，为促进我国交通可持续文明发展建设进程提供有力支撑。

Literature Review on Urban Road Traffic Carrying Capacity

The fundamental theory and quantitative research on urban traffic carrying capacity have been a hot issue for many years because of its extensive applications. As an important indicator of sustainable urban traffic, the integration of traffic carrying capacity upward with traffic planning and downward with traffic demand management can obtain a number of extended research topics. In a specific urban road network at a specific time, the traffic carrying capacity is the current or future carrying state of the road network or infrastructure with a certain number of resources and environmental constraints, i.e., the carrying capacity or its threshold value of a road traffic facility unit or system when the optimal allocation of traffic resources is achieved and the traffic environment is stable. This paper reviews the related studies on traffic carrying capacity systematically and summarizes the existing limitations and suggestions from three aspects of basic theory, quantitative method, and practical application. The limitations of the existing studies include a lack of an imperfect theoretical system, difficulty to guarantee the effectiveness of the evaluation methods, a lack of standard evaluation index, a lack of comprehensive internal and external coupling coordination analysis of complex system carrying capacity, and a lack of advanced technologies and methodologies. In the future, a relatively perfect theoretical system of traffic carrying capacity can be established. Secondly, effective evaluation models and coupling coordination models can be established by standardizing the evaluation indexes to study the internal and external coupling coordination mechanism of the traffic system and propose cooperative optimization strategies. Finally, the application technologies and methodologies should be improved, and self-application and cross-fieldapplications should be expanded. It provides a theoretical guarantee for the study of urban road traffic carrying capacity and provides strong support for the development of a sustainable civilization of transportation in China.