城市轨道交通新线开通对出行方式选择的影响研究

为研究城市轨道交通新线开通对出行方式选择的影响，开展了出行方式转换的SP(Stated Preference)调查，构建全目的和通勤出行方式选择的MNL模型(Multinomial Logit model)。定量分析了个体属性和交通方式属性对出行者交通方式选择的影响。研究表明：乘客感知的轨道交通全目的出行时耗负效用为相同时耗公交的91%，而通勤时耗负效用为全目的出行的1.89倍；轨道交通出行总时耗对分担率影响最显著，前者增减50%时，后者变动约10%；公交是轨道交通的主要竞争方式，当前者出行耗时提高50%时，后者分担率将增加6.8%；停车费小幅提高和出行时耗增加不能显著促使小汽车使用者转向轨道交通，交通需求管理是引导出行转移的重要途径。

Impacts of a New Rail Transit Line on Travel Mode Choice

This study explores the impacts of opening a new rail transit line on traveler's mode choice. A stated preference (SP) survey focusing on the travel mode shift was conducted, and the Multinomial Logit (MNL) models were proposed to estimate the model choice behavior of daily travel and commuting travel. Moreover, this paper quantitatively analyzes the influence of individual socio-economic attributes and travel mode attributes on travel mode shift. The results indicate that for daily trips with same travel time, the perceived negative utility (PNU) of urban rail transit (URT) passenger is 91.0% of that of bus passenger, and the PNU of commuting trip is 1.89 times of the average level of daily trips. Besides, URT travel time is proved to be the most significant factor affecting URT share. While travel time changes by 50.0%, URT share will change by approximately 10%. The research also reveals that bus is the most competitive mode for URT. The share of URT would increase by 6.80% when the bus travel time increases by 50%. A limited increase of parking fee or travel time cannot significantly shift the travelers using the car to the URT. Traffic demand management would be an effective way to promote mode shift.