驾驶技能与追尾事故关系的仿真研究

驾驶员驾驶水平与追尾事故发生有着密切的关系.本文以交通流仿真模型中的优化速度模型为基础，考虑驾驶员的反应时间与操作失误率两方面因素，建立了一种追尾事故的微观仿真模型.随后针对由两台车辆组成的场景，通过仿真实验研究了车速、车距及驾驶技能对追尾事故发生率的影响.仿真结果表明，依据车速保持合理距离是防止事故发生最有效的手段，而反应延迟与操作失误率对事故发生都有影响，并具有不同的影响程度与影响形式，同时给出了对驾驶员驾驶水平要求的一些建议.本文结果对于人因交通事故机理研究及人因交通事故的预防有一定参考价值.

Simulation Research on the Relationship between Driving Skills and Rear-end Accidents

Drivers'' skill associates highly with the occurrences of traffic rear-end accidents. In this paper, a microscopic simulation model is developed for rear- end collision simulation by adding reaction delay and operational error into the classic“optimal velocity model”. Then a scenario consists of two cars is researched through the simulation model to investigate the impact of the velocity, distance and drivers'' skills upon the rear-end accident rate. Simulation results indicate that keeping safe distance is the most effective measures in prevention of crashes; while both response delay and operation error rate also pose obviously effects on the accident rate, but with different strengths and forms. These results are valuable for the studies on the mechanism and prevention of human-caused traffic accidents.