从菲律宾2．17泥石流灾难探讨三峡库区的泥石流问题

2006年2月17日爆发的菲律宾特大型泥石流灾害是物源、地形地貌、降雨及地震等多因子耦合异变的必然结果,降雨、地震→散体滑坡→泥石流是该泥石流的形成机制,大量的村庄、居民生活在泥石流致灾区内而未进行有效的预警预报是泥石流灾难形成的根本原因.本文从泥石流物源、沟谷形态外貌、气象条件、地震等方面把三峡库区与菲律宾2.17泥石流区进行了对比分析,认为,三峡库区内的物源类型更多、储量更大、水理性能更差,潜在泥石流沟更多,气象条件更差,人类活动更强,致灾危险性更严重,换言之,三峡库区具备了发生大型、特大型泥石流灾害的条件.探讨了三峡库区泥石流研究与防治的基本思路.

Approaching Debris Flow in Area of the Three Gorges Reservoir through Catastrophic Debris Flow Occurring in Philippines on Feb. 17^th, 2006

Catastrophic debris flow occurring in Philippines on February 17(th),2006 is the inevitable result from coupling and changing of factors such as materials sources,landform and geomorphology,precipitations and earthquake.It is the mechanism for the debris flow to develop that landslide breaks up under action of strong precipitation and weak earthquake,and the reason for the calamity is due to many buildings and residents living in the area of debris flow while there is not any system to foresee and forecast debris flow.In this paper,authors compare basic conditions to trigger debris flow in the area of the Three Gorges reservoir with that in region of Philippines happened on February 17(th),2006,including the materials sources,outline of valley,meteorological conditions and earthquake.Then some conclusions are obtained:in area of the Three Gorges reservoir,classifications and reserves of materials have more quantity;strength under action of water are easier decreased;quantity of debris flow valleys is more;bad meteorological conditions are more obvious;man-made actions are more widely and the trend to cause calamity is more inevitable.In other words,there are enough conditions to trigger catastrophic debris flow in area of the Three Gorges reservoir.Further, some primitative ideals to study and control the debris flow in area of the Three Gorges reservoir are approached.