| 灰色预测模型在铁路客流预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄召杰,冯硕.灰色预测模型在铁路客流预测中的应用[J].交通科技与经济,2014(1):57-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄召杰 冯硕 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]北京铁路局南仓站,天津300000 [2]北京铁路局石家庄培训基地,河北石家庄050000 |
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| 摘 要： | 运量预测是铁路运输组织工作的重要基础和主要依据之一,是一项经常性工作。只有根据运量预测结果及其他方面的信息才能做出科学的决策,编制出可行计划、规划或发展战略,最大程度地减少风险,降低运作成本,减少设施闲置。运用灰色预测模型建立铁路客流预测模型,对我国铁路客运量进行预测,灰色模型的方法简单,适合在数据少的情况下预测短期客流量。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路客流 灰色模型 预测模型 残差检验 相对误差 |
Grey Forecasting Model in the Application of Railway Passenger Flow Prediction Research |
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| HUANG Zhao-jie,FENG Shuo.Grey Forecasting Model in the Application of Railway Passenger Flow Prediction Research[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2014(1):57-60. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Zhao-jie FENG Shuo |
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| Institution: | 1. Beijing Railway Administration Nancang Station, Tianjing 300000, China 2. Beijing Railway Administration Shijiazhuang Training Base,Shijiazhuang 050000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Traffic volume forecast is the important foundation of railway transport organization work and one of the main basis, is a regular job, according to the results of traffic volume forecast and other information to make a scientific decision, develop the feasible plan, planning or development strategy, the greatest degree of reduce risk, reduce operating costs, reduce facilities idle, so railway passenger flow prediction model is established by using grey prediction model of railway passenger traffic forecast to our country. |
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| Keywords: | railway passenger flow grey model prediction model residual test the relative erro |
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