| 组合预测模型在交通量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张令刚,牛德宁,孟兆民,范加冬.组合预测模型在交通量预测中的应用[J].交通科技与经济,2010,12(5):16-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张令刚 牛德宁 孟兆民 范加冬 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学,矿业工程学院,江苏,徐州,221008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家大学生创新性实验计划资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对当前组合预测模型进行分析，在已有交通量预测模型的基础上，建立基于预测有效度的组合预测模型，应用规划方法求解各单一预测模型的最优权重系数。实测数据验证表明，该组合预测方法具有比回归分析和神经网络预测模型具有更高精度，组合方法为交通量预测提供一种可靠而有效的新途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 有效度 组合模型 交通量 预测 |
Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Traffic Volume Forecasting |
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| ZHANG Ling-gang,NIU De-ning,MENG Zhao-min,FAN Jia-dong.Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Traffic Volume Forecasting[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2010,12(5):16-18. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ling-gang NIU De-ning MENG Zhao-min FAN Jia-dong |
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| Institution: | (School of Mining, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008, Jiangsu, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzed current combination forecasting model, based on pre-existing traffic volume forecasting model, the paper established combination forecasting model based on effective measure. Using programming method, synergic curve weighing coefficient for every forecasting model can be solved. The observed data shows that the combination forecasting model is precise than regression analysis and neural network model. And combination forecasting model provides a new reliable and effective method for traffic volume forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | effective measure combination model traffic volume forecasting |
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