后发地区交通基础设施建设与经济增长

发展经济学传统理论认为落后的交通运输会严重制约区域经济的发展，因此，后发地区政府都在不遗余力地促进交通基础设施建设。以重庆市1985～2011年的经济数据为研究对象，运用协整理论，进行格兰杰检验，并进行脉冲仿真分析，诠释后发地区经济和交通的互动模式以及效果。研究表明，只有交通成为区域经济发展的真正制约和瓶颈时，额外的交通投资或者交通基础设施建设才能带来额外的经济增长；进一步可以得出，后发地区政府推行的交通导向发展战略有可能是无效的。

On the traffic infrastructure construction and economic growth in undevotoped region

The traditional theories of development economics consider that backward transport seriously hampered the development of the regional economy. Therefore, developing regions＇ governments spare no effort to promote the construction of transportation infrastructure. Using the cointegration theory, Grainger tests, and pulse simulation analysis, based on the data of Chongqing during the year 198542011, interpret interaction patterns and effect between backward region economy and traffic. We find that if transportation is not the constraint then no amount of additional investment is likely to create economic benefit. That is to say, backward area government transportation oriented development （TOD） strategies may be invalid.